Lilly vs Novo Nordisk GLP-1 market share: reported figures

Key points

• For the nine months to 30 September 2026, Lilly reported $29.3 billion of Mounjaro and $14.4 billion of Zepbound revenue [1][2]. Novo Nordisk reported DKK 70.2 billion of obesity and DKK 104.3 billion of GLP-1 diabetes sales on an adjusted basis [3]. The currencies differ and we do not convert them.
• Each company cites its own prescription share, with different measures: Novo says Wegovy has more than 50 percent of new patient starts among branded US obesity medicines [3]; Lilly said on its call that about 6 in 10 US obesity prescriptions were for a Lilly medicine [4].
• The one completed head-to-head obesity trial, SURMOUNT-5 (751 adults, 72 weeks, open-label, funded by Lilly), found -20.2% weight change on tirzepatide against -13.7% on semaglutide [5][6].
• This article reports what filings, regulators and registries say. It uses no analyst forecasts or stock prices and makes no recommendation.

For each company on its own, see Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 business and Novo Nordisk’s GLP-1 business.

What was compared

Both companies report on the calendar year. We used Lilly’s third-quarter 2026 earnings release (Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 8-K, 29 October 2026) and Form 10-Q, and Novo Nordisk’s Q3 and nine-month 2026 financial report (furnished to the SEC on Form 6-K, 4 November 2026) [1][2][3]. Lilly’s investor site returned an access error to our requests, so for its prescription statements we relied on a third-party transcript of its call [4]. We could read only part of the 10-Q; its management discussion was not in the text we received [2].

Reported sales of the incretin products

Lilly reports revenue by brand, in millions of US dollars. Nine-month growth is our arithmetic from the release’s prior-year figures [1].

Lilly product	Q3 2026	Nine months 2026	Nine months 2025	Growth (our arithmetic)
Mounjaro	10,723	29,328	15,556	89%
Zepbound	5,352	14,440	9,281	56%
Foundayo	184	281	none reported	n/a
Total company revenue	24,397	67,170	45,887	46%

Of the nine-month figures, Mounjaro was $14,022 million in the US and $15,306 million outside it, and Zepbound was $14,273 million in the US and $167 million outside it [2]. The three products sum to $44,049 million, or about 66 percent of total revenue by our arithmetic. Lilly attributed company-wide Q3 growth to a 53 percent rise in volume, partly offset by a 15 percent fall in realized prices [1]. We could not open a Trulicity figure, so Lilly’s older GLP-1 diabetes product is not in the table.

Novo Nordisk reports “sales” in millions of Danish kroner, grouped by therapy area. Growth is at constant exchange rates (CER) [3].

Novo product or group	Q3 2026	Nine months 2026	Nine-month growth at CER
Ozempic (injection)	29,706	88,906	-3%
Ozempic pill / Rybelsus	4,938	14,738	-10%
Wegovy (injection)	20,407	58,126	4%
Wegovy pill	5,394	10,868	n/a
Saxenda	345	1,216	-55%
Total obesity (adjusted)	26,146	70,210	20%
Total GLP-1 diabetes	34,749	104,264	-5%
Total net sales (adjusted)	79,195	227,746	2%
Total net sales (reported)	79,195	254,506	13%

Victoza is omitted from the table (DKK 620 million over nine months) but included in the GLP-1 diabetes total [3]. Novo reports the Wegovy pill at DKK 9,575 million in the US and DKK 1,293 million elsewhere over nine months [3]. By our arithmetic, obesity plus GLP-1 diabetes is about 77 percent of adjusted nine-month sales.

What is not like-for-like

• Currency. Lilly reports in US dollars and Novo in Danish kroner. Novo’s own percentage growth is given in kroner and at constant exchange rates, which can differ [3]. We give no converted totals because that would require an exchange-rate choice neither report makes for us.
• Adjusted versus reported. Novo’s reported nine-month sales include a DKK 26.8 billion reversal of US 340B rebate provisions recognised in Q1 2026, which it says has no cash impact. Its “adjusted” figures exclude it [3]. We used adjusted figures for products and therapy areas.
• Grouping. Lilly sells one molecule, tirzepatide, under two brand names, and Zepbound is marketed for obesity only in Canada, Japan and the US [2]. Mounjaro revenue elsewhere can include weight management where the label allows it; the EU label does [11]. That is our inference, and Lilly does not split Mounjaro by indication in what we read. Novo groups sales into “obesity” and “GLP-1 diabetes” itself. Neither set of totals maps onto the other.
• Molecules. Novo’s products are semaglutide (plus liraglutide); Lilly’s are tirzepatide (a GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist) and orforglipron. The sales lines therefore compare semaglutide products with tirzepatide products, plus one oral product each, not like with like.
• Prices. Revenue is net of discounts and rebates, so it is not units multiplied by list price. Lilly reports lower realized prices company-wide and Novo reports them in the US [1][3].

Prescription share: what each company says

Neither company’s financial statements report market share. The figures below are company statements, not independent measurements.

Novo Nordisk (report of 4 November 2026). Its text says the Wegovy franchise holds “more than 50% share” of new patient starts among branded US obesity medicines, and that the Wegovy pill’s US new-to-brand share is “currently estimated around 80%” [3]. We did not see a data provider named for these two statements. Novo does name one elsewhere: a table footnote reads “Source: IQVIA, August 2026 data.” and gives branded obesity market volume growth over a moving annual total of 70 percent globally and 71 percent in the US, and GLP-1 diabetes volume growth of 28 percent globally and 12 percent in the US [3]. That is market growth, not company share.

Eli Lilly (earnings call, 29 October 2026). In a third-party copy of the transcript (Lilly’s own page was not reachable; we did not see these figures in the earnings release or the 10-Q) [4], the chief financial officer said US incretin total prescriptions grew 32 percent against Q3 2025, that “approximately 6 out of 10 total prescriptions and more than 7 out of 10 injectable prescriptions” in obesity were for a Lilly medicine, and that in type 2 diabetes the Lilly portfolio led with “more than 60% share of market” [4]. For outside the US, he said international incretins grew 53 percent “as measured by IQVIA across sales” and that Lilly gained nearly 4 points of share to reach about 58 percent [4]. The transcript names no provider for the US figures and does not say whether the 58 percent is by sales or volume. Lilly’s own slides were blocked to us, so treat this as a secondhand record of Lilly’s statements.

The two US obesity statements measure different things: new patient starts among branded medicines against total prescriptions. They cannot be subtracted from each other, and we do not compute a combined share.

Head-to-head trials

Trial	Design	Result	Funder
SURMOUNT-5, NEJM, 2025 [5][6]	Phase 3b, open-label, 751 adults with obesity and no type 2 diabetes, 72 weeks, tirzepatide vs semaglutide at the maximum tolerated dose	Weight change -20.2% vs -13.7%; waist -18.4 cm vs -13.0 cm (both P<0.001). Most common adverse events were gastrointestinal	Lilly (sponsor; authors include Lilly employees)
SURPASS-2, NEJM, 2021 [7][8]	Open-label phase 3, 1,879 adults with type 2 diabetes, 40 weeks, tirzepatide vs semaglutide 1 mg	HbA1c change -2.01 to -2.30 points on tirzepatide vs -1.86 on semaglutide; weight difference -1.9 to -5.5 kg	Lilly (sponsor per registry)
ACHIEVE-3, Lancet, 2026 [9][10]	Open-label phase 3, 1,698 adults with type 2 diabetes on metformin, 52 weeks, oral orforglipron vs oral semaglutide	HbA1c -1.91% (orforglipron 36 mg) vs -1.47% (semaglutide 14 mg); discontinuation for adverse events 9-10% vs 4-5%	Lilly (sponsor per registry)

All three trials are open-label and sponsored by Lilly, which is the maker of one of the compared drugs. They were in people, with tirzepatide or orforglipron against Novo’s product. We found no peer-reviewed head-to-head result sponsored by Novo. The registry lists a completed Novo trial of CagriSema against tirzepatide in obesity (NCT06131437, 809 participants, open-label, primary completion December 2025) with no posted results when we looked [12]. Lilly’s Q3 release also reports a “positive topline” Phase 3 comparison of retatrutide with Ozempic in type 2 diabetes; it gives no trial name or size, and we saw no retatrutide approval in the sources we opened [1].

Approval and supply differences

US approval dates are from the FDA’s Drugs@FDA data; indications are from current labels [13]-[18].

Product	FDA approval	Current US indications (labels)
Ozempic (semaglutide injection)	5 Dec 2017	Type 2 diabetes; cardiovascular risk reduction; kidney outcomes in type 2 diabetes with chronic kidney disease [14]
Rybelsus / Ozempic tablets	20 Sep 2019 (Rybelsus)	Type 2 diabetes; cardiovascular risk reduction [16]
Wegovy injection	4 Jun 2021	Weight reduction in adults and children 12 and older with obesity, adults with overweight and a comorbidity; cardiovascular risk reduction; MASH under accelerated approval [15]
Wegovy tablets	22 Dec 2025	Weight reduction and cardiovascular risk reduction in adults [15]
Mounjaro (tirzepatide)	13 May 2022	Type 2 diabetes in adults and children 10 and older; cardiovascular risk reduction [18]
Zepbound (tirzepatide)	8 Nov 2023	Weight reduction and maintenance in adults; moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity [17]
Foundayo (orforglipron)	1 Apr 2026	We did not open this label; see the Lilly article

In the EU, per EMA pages: Ozempic was authorised on 8 February 2018 for type 2 diabetes [19]; Wegovy on 6 January 2022 for weight management in adults and adolescents 12 and older [20]; Mounjaro on 15 September 2022 for type 2 diabetes and weight management [11]. EMA’s committee adopted a positive opinion for Foundayo on 15 October 2026, with no European Commission decision recorded on its page [21]. Novo states the Wegovy pill was approved in the UK in June and the EU in July 2026, and that an FDA decision on a 25 mg Ozempic tablet is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026 [3]. We did not check the UK or German registers ourselves.

On supply, Novo’s report makes no shortage statement and ties a DKK 4.1 billion impairment to “right-sizing” its manufacturing network [3]. In the part of Lilly’s 10-Q we read, supply appears only in the forward-looking-statements list [2]. In the FDA’s shortage data (updated 6 November 2026), we found no tirzepatide entry; the semaglutide entries are June 2026 notices of Rybelsus tablet discontinuation, with Ozempic tablets replacing them [22].

Stated prices

All US, one date (8 November 2026), company pages, all subject to change and to eligibility terms.

• Lilly, LillyDirect. Zepbound self-pay “starting at” $299 a month for the lowest strength and $399 for the next; higher strengths $449 with a refill-timing program, or $499 to $699 without. Foundayo starts at $149 a month, with the two lowest strengths “temporarily reduced” through 31 December 2026, up to $299. Both pages say “as low as $25” with commercial insurance [23][24]. Neither page states a list price.
• Novo, NovoCare. Wegovy pill $149, $199 or $299 a month depending on strength. Wegovy injection $199 a month for two fills for new patients through 31 December 2026, then $349, and $399 for the 7.2 mg pen. “Pay as little as $25” with commercial insurance, capped at $100 a month in savings. Novo states a list price of $1,349.02 per package for the pill, pen and HD pen [25].

A month means different things (one box of four pens, 30 tablets, a vial), strengths differ, and Lilly’s higher-strength prices depend on refill timing, so the lists are not a like-for-like price comparison. For the wider picture see GLP-1 pricing and direct-to-consumer sales in 2026.

Risks and unknowns

• Share figures are company statements with different measures, periods and, for most, no named provider. We used no independent prescription data.
• The Lilly call is read through a third-party transcript; its slides were not accessible to us.
• Head-to-head evidence comes from open-label trials sponsored by one company, covers 40 to 72 weeks, and is not a statement about comparative long-term outcomes or safety. The tirzepatide and semaglutide labels carry their own warnings, which we did not compare here.
• We did not verify Trulicity, Lilly’s EU decision on Foundayo, or any UK or German registrations.

Frequently asked questions

Which company sold more incretin medicine in 2026? The reports use different currencies and groupings, so no single comparison is clean. In their own units, Lilly reported $43.8 billion for Mounjaro and Zepbound over nine months, and Novo reported DKK 174.5 billion for obesity plus GLP-1 diabetes (adjusted), both by our arithmetic [1][3].

Does a head-to-head trial show tirzepatide beats semaglutide? In SURMOUNT-5, weight loss at 72 weeks was greater with tirzepatide (-20.2% vs -13.7%) [5]. The trial was open-label and funded by Lilly. It tested weight in adults without diabetes and does not cover other outcomes.

Where does the share data come from? From the companies’ own reports and calls. Novo cites IQVIA for market volume growth; Lilly’s transcript names IQVIA only for international data [3][4].

Are the oral products comparable? ACHIEVE-3 compared orforglipron with oral semaglutide in type 2 diabetes, not in obesity [9]. Foundayo and the Wegovy pill are approved for obesity in the US, but no obesity head-to-head trial was found.

Sources

1. Eli Lilly and Company, “Lilly reports third-quarter 2026 financial results,” Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K (2026-10-29). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000104/q326lillysalesandearningsp.htm
2. Eli Lilly and Company, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 2026-10-29); segment and product revenue note only. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/59478/000005947826000108/lly-20260930.htm
3. Novo Nordisk A/S, Q3 and nine-month 2026 financial report, Form 6-K (2026-11-04). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000353278/000162828026069805/caq32026.htm
4. TradingKey, transcript of Eli Lilly Q3 2026 earnings call (published 2026-10-29); third-party copy, Lilly’s own materials returned HTTP 403. https://www.tradingkey.com/news/transcripts/262254129-tradingkey
5. PubMed 40353578, Aronne LJ et al., “Tirzepatide as Compared with Semaglutide for the Treatment of Obesity,” N Engl J Med 2025;393:26-36 (epub 2025-05-11). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40353578/
6. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05822830, SURMOUNT-5 (read 2026-11-08). https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05822830
7. PubMed 34170647, (SURPASS-2), “Tirzepatide versus Semaglutide Once Weekly in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes,” N Engl J Med 2021 (2021-08-05). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34170647/
8. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03987919, SURPASS-2 (read 2026-11-08). https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03987919
9. PubMed 41765029, “Efficacy and safety of once-daily oral orforglipron compared with oral semaglutide in adults with type 2 diabetes (ACHIEVE-3),” Lancet 2026;407:1147-1160 (2026-03-21). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41765029/
10. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06045221, ACHIEVE-3 (read 2026-11-08). https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06045221
11. European Medicines Agency, Mounjaro EPAR page (updated 2026-10-08). https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/mounjaro
12. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT06131437, CagriSema vs tirzepatide (read 2026-11-08). https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06131437
13. U.S. FDA, Drugs@FDA data via openFDA, original approval dates (queried 2026-11-08). https://api.fda.gov/drug/drugsfda.json
14. DailyMed (NLM), Ozempic injection label (effective 2026-06-01). https://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/lookup.cfm?setid=adec4fd2-6858-4c99-91d4-531f5f2a2d79
15. DailyMed (NLM), Wegovy injection and tablets label (effective 2026-06-18). https://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/lookup.cfm?setid=ee06186f-2aa3-4990-a760-757579d8f77b
16. DailyMed (NLM), Rybelsus and Ozempic tablets label (effective 2026-01-30). https://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/lookup.cfm?setid=27f15fac-7d98-4114-a2ec-92494a91da98
17. DailyMed (NLM), Zepbound label (effective 2026-08-28). https://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/lookup.cfm?setid=487cd7e7-434c-4925-99fa-aa80b1cc776b
18. DailyMed (NLM), Mounjaro label (effective 2026-08-27). https://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/lookup.cfm?setid=d2d7da5d-ad07-4228-955f-cf7e355c8cc0
19. European Medicines Agency, Ozempic EPAR page (updated 2026-08-25). https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/ozempic
20. European Medicines Agency, Wegovy EPAR page (updated 2026-10-26). https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/wegovy
21. European Medicines Agency, Foundayo CHMP opinion page (opinion 2026-10-15). https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/node/288002
22. U.S. FDA, drug shortages data via openFDA (last updated 2026-11-06; queried 2026-11-08). https://api.fda.gov/drug/shortages.json
23. Eli Lilly and Company, LillyDirect Zepbound page (read 2026-11-08; footer code 10/2026). https://www.lilly.com/lillydirect/zepbound
24. Eli Lilly and Company, LillyDirect Foundayo page (read 2026-11-08). https://www.lilly.com/lillydirect/foundayo
25. Novo Nordisk, NovoCare “Price your Wegovy” page (read 2026-11-08; page undated). https://www.novocare.com/obesity/products/wegovy.html

This article is information, not medical advice.

This is not investment advice.